Another chapter has been added to the Ilya Kovalchuk saga
now that the LA Kings are back in the mix for his services. Since the Islanders have dropped out of the
Kovy sweepstakes, the known remaining options are the Kings, Devils, and the
KHL.
What about the Rangers? Fans (and likely management) are extremely polarized about whether
signing Ilya would be a move that makes the Rangers a contender, or destroys
the franchise. Kovalchuk signing with
the Rangers is a long shot, but we’d be remiss in not discussing it considering
how long this has gone on. And
considering Glen Sather’s history with big-name free agents, a run at Kovalchuk
can never be ruled out. So if the
Rangers signed Ilya, what would happen financially, with the roster, and in the
future?
Financially: Believe
it or not, the Rangers can afford to sign Kovalchuk. Most estimates are that the Rangers have about
$7.8 million in available cap space (though I believe this to be a little low
because most cap estimates show Mats Zuccarello-Aasen’s cap hit as $1.75 million
per year whereas he actually signed a two-year, $1.75 million deal) . They still must sign Dan Girardi and
Marc Staal who should command about $7 million in total. That leaves only $800k. But if the Rangers demoted Wade Redden to Hartford, instead
deploying Ryan McDonagh, they’d free up $6.5 million. The total available space of $7.3 million is
not enough to match the offers Kovalchuk likely has already received from the
Devils and Kings, but its close. Some believe that Kovalchuk really wants to play for the Rangers, so a slightly
smaller salary may be acceptable. Of
course signing Kovalchuk would push the Rangers against the cap with absolutely
no wiggle room, but it’s not impossible.
Roster: Getting rid
of Redden is the only way to make a Kovalchuk signing possible. So considering that, here’s how this year’s
lineup could look.
Prospal Christensen Gaborik
Kovalchuk Anisimov Callahan
Dubinsky Drury Zuccarello-Aasen
Avery Boyle Prust
Staal Del Zotto
Girardi Rozsival
McDonagh Gilroy
Lundqvist
Biron
Extras
Derek Boogaard
Dale Weise
Ethan Werek
7th d to be named
The future: Undoubtedly signing
Kovalchuk changes things now and down the road. Locking up Kovalchuk would mean there’s very little room for the Rangers
homegrown talent to make the team anytime in the near future. Next summer the Rangers RFAs will be
Callahan, Dubinsky, Anisimov, Boyle, and Gilroy. Their UFAs will be Prospal, Donald Brashear,
and Aaron Voros (though the latter two may be gone long before next summer).
You’d think Dubinsky, Callahan, and Anisimov would all be no brainer
re-signings.
Brashear and Voros obviously won’t be back regardless. If the Rangers signed Kovalchuk, it’s safe to
assume that Prospal would also leave. Gilroy and Boyle are wildcards, but if Gilroy doesn’t improve this season he
probably won’t be asked back. Boyle may
or may not return, but his roll would be filled by a minimum wage fourth line
center anyway. So the
Rangers roster going into next summer would look something like this:
- Christensen Gaborik
Kovalchuk Anisimov Callahan
Dubinsky Drury Zuccarello-Aasen
Avery - Prust
Staal Del Zotto
Girardi Rozsival
McDonagh -
Lundqvist
Biron
Extras
Derek Boogaard
That means there’s only one spot open for a youngster next season, with
Evgeny Grachev, Derek Stepan, and Ethan Werek all likely to be just about NHL
ready and Chris Kreider just a year behind. Grachev and Werek could be ready for the Blueshirts this year, but by
next year they will be almost certainly. Prospal’s spot opens room for one of them, but the other two would be
out of luck. However, Christensen will
have only one year left on his deal at a very affordable price, so if Stepan
and Werek were indeed ready, it shouldn’t be too difficult to find a taker for
his contract via waivers or trade. Even
dealing Christensen makes it likely that one of the three would have to wait
for his ticket to the NHL, ready or not, unless of course the Rangers entertained
offers for Dubinsky or one of their other expiring contracts (Avery, Prust, and
Zuccarello-Aasen would also be in the final years of their contracts).
Of course in two years, Michal Rozsival and Chris Drury come off the
books, and there’d be room for all the kids.
All of this is very hypothetical and can change dramatically as time
goes on. But the truth is the Rangers
actually can accommodate Kovalchuk’s salary, while fielding a decent team and
also allowing their top prospects to reach the NHL basically on schedule. This future roster building is composed of
contingency plans, but there’s nothing impossible about it.
Signing Kovalchuk may create many problems, but it would force the
Rangers to be rid of Redden and it could actually cause them to reserve spots
for the youngsters in the next couple years just because they won’t be able to
afford free agents.
Again, like many of you I am staunchly against signing Kovalchuk. But there is a way that all of this can work.
Have at it!
